Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2005

Abstract

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Comments

Papers prepared by American or Canadian government employees as part of their official duties need not have the assignment of copyright transferred since this material is automatically considered as part of the public domain.

Dr. DOUGLAS A. WILCOX was a federal employee of the National Fisheries Research Center-Great Lakes US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Citation/Publisher Attribution

Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D.B. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielson, C. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: case studies and management implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357-394.

Publisher Statement

The original publication is available at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecocom

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